Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Real Unemployment and Data on the Modern U.S. Economy

New research suggests the real unemployment rate is around 4.16%. The following is a spreadsheet of some of the analysis of economic data, followed by comments and suggestions for improving the economy.




1. We conclude that the difference between the percentage of monetary pie taken and the percentage of the population hired can be divided by the total percentage of monetary pie taken to give us the extrapolated estimate of total people either unemployed or government employed in the U.S. today. This is currently estimated at 90.24% of citizens, but it does include people under the age of 18 and full-time college students. After subtracting underage workers and full-time students, the real unemployment rate is approximately 4.16%.

1a. Assuming a decent sample, that this same proportion could hold true for all companies in the U.S is assumed.

1b. Unfortunately, this shows that on average, companies cannot replenish the same percentage of citizens with jobs as the percentage of circulating money they take. This is understandable, because they have to spend money on many things to conduct business, in addition to paying taxes and fees. This sample included some of the biggest employers in the world, including both minimum wage jobs and high quality jobs.

1c. It could be impossible, but is definitely not statistically occuring where 100% of people
are employed, even if 100% of the money in circulation were in the hands of employers. That is bad, because it means that even if given 100% of the money in circulation, today's employers would not be able to hire 100% of the population. There could be a variety of reasons for this. Obviously, there are a number of costs in conducting business operations. There are also many other taxes and fees that they must pay.

2. It could be due to too small an amount of total money in circulation. If the total amount in circulation were a larger amount, then I think it would be reasonable to expect that in taking the exact same percentage of that larger total, they would possibly be able to hire a larger percentage of employees.

2a. We can extrapolate the data of this to estimate exactly how much money in circulation would be needed to hire 100% of the U.S. population.

2b. Estimating that 70,000,000 people are on Soc. Security/Disability and 36.49% are employed by the government, 110 million people remain unemployed. After subtracting 20.6 million full-time college students; 74,613,000 people under the age of 18; and 1,339,000 full-time graduate students; the total that remain unemployed stands at approximately 13,448,000. This is the real unemployment rate, which is 4.16% of the total population.

2c. It would take $2,111,462,677,712.06 added to the money in circulation to result in the hire of the rest of those unemployed people today, assuming that 100% of it were spent and given to companies.

2d. Data relating to the massive amount of Consumer Debt that has been incurred by the citizens of the United States, estimated by the Federal Reserve to be $3,533,000,000,000 in 2015, supports the idea that the U.S. Citizens are in trouble financially. The amount of Consumer Debt seems to be more than double the current total amount of money in circulation. Unfortunately, Americans are not able to buy all of the things that they need and want, without avoiding large amounts of debt. That points to a state of recession or even depression in the economy.

3. It is reasonable to conclude from this data that after the threshold of the figure in 2c added to the total amount of consumer debt plus government debt is reached for the total amount of money in circulation, both the government and all consumers will begin getting surplus dollars. That means that the deficit problem in government would be solved in addition to the consumer debt crisis.

3a. The benefits of such an addition to the American Economy would be extremely beneficial in relation to less restrictions and freedom on American life and business, improved quality of goods and services (due to better choice making possible for more individuals regardless of higher price), improved job quality (due to the possibility of higher selectiveness of employees without required dependence), and overall improved quality of life for all (in a great increase).

3b. One possible approach to adding this money into circulation effectively would be through direct payments to taxpayers.

3ba. It is possible, if not a certainty, that through this method 100% of the money will not be invested in new businesses, because many people will save some of the money for personal savings. It is probable that quite a bit of it will be saved in this way.

3c. Because it is so vital for a currency to continue to be accepted by all businesses and persons, it may require a reattachment to the gold standard for a period of time, until people accept it once again.

4. It is impossible to gather data on personal savings information, as it is private data. Because of the lack of this information, as well as several other factors such as the influx of money from other countries, these numbers are all only an estimation. They are not perfectly accurate, therefore.

4a. However, because the employment data reflects a higher total employment number than these numbers would indicate, even after factoring in personal savings, this indicates that the totals for increasing the money supply to a sufficient level are actually an overestimation.

4aa. Considering that the overestimation in this case is fairly small to a reasonable degree, as well as that there is the potential for other countries to need any money that we have brought into our economy, the overall effect of the input of these estimations would show a more positive than expected response.

5. To estimate the need six years from now as a target, the average of the population increase as well as a rough average of expected immigration was taken into account. The new total for six years from now was $3,367,538,036,255.82 to hire the rest of the nation's unemployed.

5b. Based off of the information in 5a, our best recommendation for implementation would be a direct payment to all American citizens, either once a year or quarterly, that equals in summation the following amounts per year:

 
 
5ba. After six years, the amount of money in circulation should meet at least the minimum needs of the population, after which it can be updated to continue to meet the needs of the growing population periodically; as well as updated to greater amounts, if it seems a better outcome comes from greater surpluses in government and the population.